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Russia is strengthening relations with North Korea. How will it affect Ukraine?

Sanctions and international isolation are pushing Russia and North Korea into closer cooperation. However, Russia is unlikely to receive military assistance from the DPRK in the war against Ukraine.

Russia and North Korea, rejected by most of the international community, are working to improve bilateral relations and express support for each other’s geopolitical ambitions in Ukraine and the Korean Peninsula. North Korea has offered to provide thousands of workers to help rebuild the self-proclaimed “DNR” and “LNR” in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine, media reported. There are also proposals from Pyongyang to send 100,000 soldiers to participate Russia’s war against Ukraine.

On May 26, Russia backed China, which vetoed a draft UN Security Council resolution that imposed tougher sanctions against the DPRK for a series of ballistic missile launches earlier this year. this. For the first time since 2006, the UN Security Council failed to agree on sanctions against North Korea. Moscow said the proposed new measure would be “irresponsible.”

Russia supports North Korea in the UN Security Council

Russia and China, which have drawn closer to each other since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, jointly took another step at the UN Security Council by calling for the lifting of some of the sanctions imposed on Pyongyang for its nuclear weapons program and development of long-range ballistic missiles.

Experts say Russia and North Korea are desperate for foreign partners because much of the rest of the world opposes their regimes. Meanwhile, China has taken a similar stance over claims to offshore resources in much of the South China Sea and related tensions with several neighboring countries, as well as territorial claims in Taiwan. , Japan, India and South China. Korea.

“Russia and North Korea have a long history of relations with many common political positions. Now they are coming closer again because they have a common enemy and they need each other’s support to better resist external pressure,” the former diplomat and leader told DW. South Korean intelligence Ra Chong Il. According to him, the proposal to send workers to the regions of Ukraine occupied by Russia is “of great importance” for the relations between the two countries, because in this way Pyongyang reaffirms the recognition of the self-proclaimed “DNR” and “LNR”.

It could also be a very good deal for the DPRK. Russian Ambassador to Pyongyang Alexander Matsegora said that for providing workers, Russia will pay North Korea with industrial equipment and wheat, which it desperately needs. International sanctions effectively ban the import of equipment into the DPRK, and food shortages in the country have been a common occurrence for decades.

International pressure has made Moscow and Pyongyang “natural partners”

“It is clear that the DPRK has given up trying to improve relations with South Korea and the United States, which means that now it can only rely on Russia and China,” said Ra Chong Il. In his opinion, given the situation in which Moscow and Pyongyang found themselves, it was inevitable.

Yakov Zinberg, a professor of international relations specializing in East Asia at Tokyo’s Kokushikan University, agrees with this assessment. According to him, the common history and the need for allies in a situation where both countries are under international pressure made them “natural partners.” “Now they see themselves as ‘victims’ of sanctions and are looking for ways to avoid them,” he said.

Although the alliance has clear advantages, Zinberg is not sure that Russia will accept North Korea’s offer of military aid to Ukraine and will likely continue to be careful in the Far East not to further anger other countries in region. “My impression is that Moscow is still cautious about the Pacific region,” he said. “Russia cannot afford to irritate South Korea and Japan, and the US, which has a large military presence in both of these countries.”

Russia fears conflict on two fronts

“Russia has traditionally feared confrontation on two fronts,” Zinberg emphasized. “Now it is bound (by war. – Ed.) in Ukraine, and it seems that this situation will continue for some time, so he will try to avoid any situation that requires the transfer of forces to the Far East. ” Therefore, it is likely that Moscow will continue to support North Korea. in words if it is in its interest and can help focus the US on Northeast Asia rather than Central Europe, Zinberg said, while not accepting Pyongyang’s military assistance , even if it insists.

East Asia is a very unstable part of the world, with tensions on the Korean Peninsula, around Taiwan, islands in the South China Sea, and Chinese warships in southern Japan, so Russia hopes that the things are not too far, said Zinberg. Still, it seems inevitable that tensions will continue to rise, he admitted.

The former head of South Korea’s military intelligence service said this week that North Korea is expected to conduct its seventh underground nuclear test before the US midterm elections in November.

Source: korrespondent

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