Moscow is ready to put up for a referendum even parts of the occupied regions of Ukraine.
People will understand that something is not working out,” Meduza says, citing his own sources, saying that the Kremlin does not know what to do with referendums on annexing the occupied territories to Russia.
They can be moved again, because the army is stalling again.
Putler mistakes
According to Meduza’s calculations, Russia now controls 60.25% of the Donetsk region – and this figure has hardly been growing lately, a month ago the figure was 59.7%. Despite this, according to two Meduza sources close to the Kremlin, the Russian presidential administration has not yet given up on the idea of holding referendums in the autumn on joining Russia with the fake LPR and DPR groups, as well as the occupied territories of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions.
As Meduza previously wrote, the Kremlin believed they could hold referendums on annexing all of these territories on September 11, the Single Voting Day, when Russia would elect regional parliaments and several governors. However, according to the plan of the Russian authorities, until this date, the troops of Russia and the DPR should fully control the Donetsk region.
Now the Presidential Administration is considering another option: referendums should be held on September 11, but 60% of the territory of the Donetsk region will be annexed to Russia. If the troops are later able to occupy the remaining territory of the region, then it “will be attached to Russia by default.”
Meduza’s interlocutors close to the Kremlin noted that in May-June, the Russian authorities were confident that by September the Donetsk region would be under their control “for some time” and that it would be possible to calmly prepare a referendum there. However, the Kremlin once again misjudged the situation at the front.
Meduza’s sources noted that the Russian authorities are very reluctant to postpone the referendums again (they were originally planned to be held in the spring). Moreover, representatives of the pro-Russian administrations of the occupied territories have already signed documents on preparations for voting, and relevant billboards are already hanging in the settlements of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, as well as the self-proclaimed DPR and LPR.
fallback scenarios
However, the presidential administration is already working on a fallback scenario – voting will take place in the winter. The Kremlin hopes that by December-January, Russian troops will be able to capture the Donetsk region and not lose control over the already occupied territories. According to Meduza’s interlocutors, the winter voting scenario is becoming “increasingly likely.”
At the same time, the Kremlin understands that another postponement of referendums may confuse those who support the war: “People will understand that something is not working out, the calculations are not being confirmed. They may see it as a weakness.”
Meduza’s sources stressed that the Presidential Administration still does not understand how to avoid such a development of events. However, the inhabitants of the territories occupied by Russia have already begun to gradually prepare for such a scenario. According to Meduza’s interlocutors, this is evidenced by statements by the head of the self-proclaimed LPR, Leonid Pasechnik, and deputy head of the “military-civilian administration” of the Kherson region, Ekaterina Gubareva, that referendums will take place “only after” the capture of the entire Donetsk region, without specifying specific ones.
Meduza’s sources explained that if the referendums are postponed until the winter, then most likely the political strategists will need to develop “new slogans and elements of ideology” to carry them out.
Earlier, Meduza wrote that the internal political bloc of the Presidential Administration developed the concept of a “new Russia” for referendums. She meant that the inhabitants of the occupied territories would be explained: after their accession to Russia, the country will become “stronger and richer” and “get a new quality.”
However, Putin and members of the Security Council did not like this ideology, who believe that the country “returns its own, and does not receive something new.” As a result, now residents of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions are campaigning for a referendum with the slogans “Together with Russia” and “One people” (this concept has long been liked by Putin).
According to three sources close to the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin will make the final decision on the date of the referendums in the near future. The presidential spokesman did not answer Meduza’s question at the time of publication.
One of Meduza’s interlocutors explained:
For the head of the Kremlin’s internal political bloc, Sergei Kiriyenko, in principle, it makes no difference when the referendums take place. If they say it will be held in September, they will, everything is ready from the technological point of view. If we have to postpone it, then it is not Kiriyenko’s fault, but the military’s. It is his style to do his best in his area to show his diligence and efficiency.
Source: Racurs
