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How long will Western aid last? German experts

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Does Ukraine guarantee the support of the West if in the future it rejects the terms of a truce with the Russian Federation with the loss of territories? What role will gas prices play in this? Such issues were discussed by experts from Germany.

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a regional war with global consequences. And it is now clear that it will change international politics for years to come, and possibly decades,” – in these words, military expert, Professor Carlo Masala (Carlo Masala) led the podium discussion on the development of this conflict, which took place at the Bundeswehr University of Munich on the evening of 19 July.

How strong is Ukraine’s support from the EU and NATO countries, if the war lasts, will Kyiv be able to avoid territorial losses when making peace, and perhaps even regain Donbass and Crimea, and what will happen if on the morning of July 21 – the day of completion of the planned repair of the Nord Stream gas pipeline – Russian gas will not flow through its pipes to Europe?

Opinions of the participants of the discussion – retired General of the Bundeswehr Hans-Lothar Domröse, Consul General of Ukraine in Munich Yuriy Yarmilko, Speaker of the CDU / CSU group in the Bundestag on defense policy Florian Hahn and Head of the international department of Focus magazine that Gudrun Dometayt (Gudrun Dometeit) – on these and other issues are sometimes strongly opposed.

How will the situation develop at the front?

Assessing the situation at the front, Hans-Lothar Domröse said that the Kremlin did not achieve its strategic goals in Ukraine “and therefore used the old Soviet method of warfare – to walk (on the enemy. – Ed.) with skating rink.” “It means: artillery, destruction, uncontrolled firing,” he explained.

According to a retired Bundeswehr general, the situation in Ukraine reminds him of the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-1988 (it ended with the signing of a truce amid huge human and economic losses by the parties. – Ed .):

“The war (on the Ukrainian side. – Ed.) was conducted to the last soldier, in the conditions of the gradual end of weapons. At the same time, the Russians could hardly conquer new territories (…). Even in Donbass, in their territory, which they want to “liberate”, they have advanced only a few kilometers. So, we have trench warfare, like in the 12th round of a boxing match, where the two opponents barely standing, hanging. over each other and suffering great losses.”

Commenting on British intelligence data that Russian casualties were around 30,000 troops, Domrese said: “We should have all been wiped out long ago. A catastrophic result.” Meanwhile, Russia could escalate the conflict by sending more tanks, aircraft, ships and artillery to Ukraine, he warned.

“He (Russian President Vladimir Putin. – Ed.) will not achieve his main strategic goal -” demilitarization and denazification “of Ukraine, but he can get, for example, Odessa, and this is a big risk,” Domrese argues.

The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, according to the retired general, will also not be able to achieve his goals – to return to Ukraine all occupied territories, including Crimea. With high-tech Western weapons and a military trained to use them, Ukraine will achieve local victories in the fall, he believes: “Certainly local, and not including a 900-kilometer line.”

For its part, Russia will increasingly feel the pressure of sanctions, including the lack of chips for the production of tanks. Under such conditions, a critical point could be reached in the fall, “when both presidents said: ‘If progress is not possible, then we will conclude a cease-fire agreement (not peace)’.”

Is the West tired of the war in Ukraine?

According to Carlo Masala, five months after the start of the war in several countries, including the US and Germany, questions began to arise about how long the West should support Ukraine.

“We are not talking about governments. However, some important people are increasingly expressing such opinions,” he explained.

“I think now everyone understands what Putin is, that the policy of building bridges with Russia has failed,” answered Yarmilko. “Now everyone understands that we are not only fighting for ourselves, for an independent Ukraine, but also for the defense of a democratic peace from barbarism. So, of course, we hope for more help and are grateful for it.

Returning to the same topic later, he added: “The issue of gas prices is very important for German society. Standard of living, well-being – what could be more important? However, two things are now in the balance: a 1 euro surcharge per cubic meter of gas and a cooling in the apartment of a few degrees, and human life, the existence of the state, the destroyed cities and villages. For me, the answer is obvious.”

For her part, Gudrun Dometaite, Head of International Focus magazine, confirmed that her publication has seen readers lose interest in articles about crises since the coronavirus pandemic. Some are already wondering why they should pay for Putin’s attack on Ukraine.

According to the journalist, in the fall, when gas prices in Germany rise, unity in Ukraine can be forgotten. The media needs to find a solution to this problem to re-engage readers’ attention on important topics, Dometite said.

On the supply of heavy weapons to Ukraine from Germany

The former Ukrainian ambassador in Berlin, Andriy Melnyk, recently recalled by Kyiv to his homeland, has repeatedly criticized the FRG because, in his opinion, the speed of arms supplies is too slow. Yuriy Yarmilko, speaking more diplomatically, also noted that Ukraine “does not fully understand” why there are no problems with the supply of the German Gepard ZSU, but, for example, with the Marder BMP.

“However, from my point of view, the situation has improved significantly,” said the Consul General, adding that, according to his information, in the near future, another group of weapons previously agreed upon for the supply of weapons have to go to Ukraine from Germany. “It is good that we are receiving weapons, but we need more, and not in August or three months from now, but now.”

Retired General Domrese confirmed that Germany has enough weapons to supply some of them to Ukraine, but this requires a political decision and compliance with the arms export law.

“If you want, you can do it. I will not oppose you, Mr. Consul General. But do not be too optimistic, saying: in August we will not need these weapons. You needed them yesterday, now and, unfortunately, in August as well,” Domrese is sure.

The need for additional arms supplies to Ukraine is also without doubt for the representative of the Bundestag from the CDU/CSU bloc, Florian Hahn.

“We are the largest economy in Europe. We, Europe, are now, as it were, in the middle of this conflict. That is why it is so important that we take the lead, and not just watch what others are doing, and always trail behind” , – he said, referring to the words of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (Olaf Scholz), that all issues of arms supplies to Ukraine to Berlin must first be agreed within NATO.

The goals of the West and Ukraine in relation to the war with Russia

What are the goals of Kyiv, Moscow and the West in relation to the ongoing war in Ukraine, and how realistic is their success? Opinions are divided on this matter. “If the goals (in the war. – Ed.) are not set by politics, the commander-in-chief must set them before himself and ensure their success,” Hans-Lothar Domrese believes.

“What does that mean in this case? I’m sorry, Mr. Consul General, but it doesn’t mean ‘the Russians lose.’ It is illusory and mathematically impossible,” he continued. “It is a world power with 900,000 soldiers that can provide reinforcements”.

In such a situation, the goal of the West in the war between Russia and Ukraine should be to support this country until it can lead a politically independent life, the retired general believes: “Here you have to look at what space it is . will have the entire territory of Ukraine, I, unfortunately, doubt it. But the rest of the country, however big it is, preferably as much as possible, when the shooting stops, must be able to decide for itself what this. want.”

According to Domrese, this is why the West needs to supply Ukraine with weapons as soon as possible – so that the area of ​​”remaining Ukraine” can be maximized and negotiations on a ceasefire can begin. Opposing him, Consul General Yarmilko said: “Ukraine wants to return to the legal borders of 2014.”

According to the diplomat, the opinion that Kyiv should keep “the rest of Ukraine” is dangerous: “After all, Putin will not stop, he will not abandon us. And if we now agree on a certain status quo, then other things will happen “I’m not even talking about Moldova, the Baltic countries, Poland or Slovakia. I’m talking about us (Ukraine. – Ed.) – tomorrow, tomorrow, in a year, in five years. Therefore, we say strategically (what are the goals of Ukraine in the war. – Ed.) – these are the borders of 2014, and tactically – these are the borders of February 23 of the current year.

Source: Russian Service DW

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