On January 31, the National Bank published a quarterly inflation report, where he revised his forecasts.
Inflation will reach the peak in the second quarter of this year and will continue to decline. At the end of 2025, it will be 8.4%, and as a result of 2026, it will return to the target of NBU 5%.
NBU provides for an increase in interest policy in the first half of 2025 to withstand price pressure. Thus, in 2025, the discount rate at the level of 14.4%, and in 2026 – 11.8%.
Real GDP will increase by 3.6% this year, and in the next two years the economy will accelerate to 4% per year.
The economy will grow from investments in the reconstruction of energy and production capacities, soft financial policy, revitalizing domestic demand, as well as an increase in production from an increase in productivity. With the return of the economy to normal conditions of functioning, the gradual profitability of migrants will begin, which will also support GDP growth.
Employment and wages will gradually grow against the backdrop of the lack of workers and the restoration of the economy.
Unemployment will decrease from demand for labor, but will still be higher than to the preschool level.
There will be significant differences between the needs of employers and the knowledge and capabilities of potential workers.
At the same time, salaries will continue to grow in high competition for qualified workers.
Assistance to international partners and raising funds in the domestic market will cover a budget deficit without printing money.
Among the main risks that will have a strong influence on the main scenario are the escalation of military operations, a greater absence of energy from the further damage to the energy infrastructure and additional budget needs.
Source: Racurs
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