The IMF’s updated base case scenario for Ukraine calls for the war to end at the end of 2025, while the downside scenario calls for it to end in mid-2026.
The baseline scenario for developments in Ukraine continues to assume that the war will end at the end of 2025. In its sixth report, the IMF notes that real GDP growth reached 4% year-on-year in 2024, up 1% from the fifth survey.
At the same time, the economic consequences of electricity shortages in winter may be weaker than previously expected. Inflation by the end of the year was revised upward by 1st century. p. up to 10%.
The negative scenario from the IMF assumes a longer war that will end in mid-2026. The scenario assumes a more prolonged and intense shock to economic activity, fiscal needs and the balance of payments.
The total external financing gap under the worst-case scenario is $177.2 billion, compared to $148 billion under the base case.
The crisis is expected already in the first quarter of 2025, which will lead to a drop in GDP by -2.5%, serious damage to the energy infrastructure and an increase in the external financing deficit. Subsequent attacks on the energy grid, demographic challenges and a possible decline in international support threaten to worsen the situation.
On December 21, the executive board of the International Monetary Fund approved the allocation of $1.1 billion to Ukraine. within the current loan program. The money will be used to support the budget.
Source: Racurs
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