Baltic and North Sea countries will begin checking the insurance status of tankers carrying Russian oil from Baltic Sea ports.
Twelve European countries are moving to restrict tankers carrying millions of barrels of Russian oil around the world, demanding checks on how they are protected from oil spills.
Countries should introduce checks on the insurance policies of Russian tankers passing by, according to people familiar with the matter. The plan is scheduled to be announced later on December 16-17.
There, half of the tankers do not have P&I policies, and there are dubious policies in insurance companies in Russia, India, China, etc., Andrei Klimenko, editor-in-chief of BlackSeaNews, wrote on his Facebook page.
Background
The main risk factor determining the duration of Russia’s war against Ukraine is the volume of maritime exports of Russian crude oil and petroleum products. It will have to be limited in the Baltic and North Seas.
Exports of energy resources range from 55 to 70% of Russia’s export earnings, depending on world prices. In turn, it is the export of crude oil and petroleum products, and not any other components (such as LNG, which technically diverts attention from oil), that is the main source of Russia’s foreign exchange earnings. The share of oil in its energy exports is estimated to be up to 70%.
As long as it exists in such volumes, the war against Ukraine will continue and require huge financial burdens on EU countries, says the report of the Monitoring Group on Sanctions and Freedom of Navigation.
This risk of the duration of the war and the duration of the costs of European countries to support and strengthen their own security is mainly determined by the volume of maritime exports of crude oil from Russian ports in the Baltic Sea. It accounts for about 60% of total seaborne oil exports from Russia and is physically measured at 10-12. million tons of crude oil monthly, transported by 90 to 105 tankers per month.
The ratio of crude oil export volumes from the Black Sea ports to the Baltic Sea ports is approximately 1:3.
The mechanism of the so-called “price ceiling” did not work and is not working, since it does not and cannot have guarantees against falsification of documents on the cost of tanker cargo.
Concluding contracts in compliance with the “price ceiling” from 2022 is expressly prohibited by decree of the Russian President and is strictly controlled.
Public support of this direction in world and expert circles actually serves as a cover for the real circumstances that 30% of this crude oil is transported from Russian ports by tankers owned by companies registered in EU countries (mainly in Greece), and up to 10% of this oil. is delivered to offshore transshipments off the coast of EU countries in the Mediterranean Sea, from where small shipments with false documents can enter EU countries in violation of the embargo.
The correct formulation of the problem is to fight to reduce Russian sea exports of oil and petroleum products as the main external source of financing and the duration of Russian aggression against the civilized world.
On average, from 310 to 350 tankers operate from the ports of the Baltic and Black Seas per month, from 120 to 140 of them transport crude oil, from 190 to 210 tankers transport petroleum products.
Taking into account repeated (cyclic) voyages, we can roughly estimate the total number of tankers transporting Russian oil and oil products from the ports of the Baltic and Black Seas over the past 6 months at 900-1000 vessels (of which approximately 300-400 are crude oil tankers – Type Crude Oil Tanker).
The theses widespread in the world media about the critical age of the corresponding tanker fleet and, accordingly, its poor technical condition do not correspond to reality. The average age of 99 tankers transporting Russian crude oil from Baltic Sea ports in September 2024 is 15.7 years, which is not a critical indicator.
Let us note that the thesis that tankers older than 15 years are “old tankers with poor technical condition” is unprofessional from the point of view of shipping practice. In fact, in world practice, ships that are much older can be in normal technical condition.
The main criterion for the technical condition of a tanker is its presence or absence in the white lists, black lists or gray lists of international port control memorandums (memorandum of understanding regarding port state control) – Tokyo MOU, Paris MOU, etc.
In September 2024, out of 99 tankers transporting Russian crude oil from the ports of the Baltic Sea, only 28 (i.e. 28.3%) are on the “black lists” of international port control memorandums, that is, they experience serious problems with their technical condition.
In September 2024, out of 99 tankers transporting Russian crude oil from the ports of the Baltic Sea, only 37 (i.e. 37.4%) are on the “grey lists” of international port control memorandums, that is, they have some problems with the technical condition that can be eliminated. .
The largest number of blacklisted tankers belong to shipowners from flag of convenience countries (FOC countries) – 8 out of 9; Azerbaijan – 6 out of 6; India – 4 out of 8.
Of the 17 tankers owned by owners from Russia (UAE), only 3 are blacklisted by port control memorandums.
The largest “array” of carrier tankers (Greece – all 29 tankers) do not experience any problems with their technical condition.
For 6 months (April-September) 2024, about 6.2 million tons of crude oil (7.1% of total volumes) and 6.5 million tons of petroleum products (16.6% of total volumes).
The authors represent a team that has been monitoring the movement of sea vessels for 15 years, and for the last 2.5 years, since April 2024, has been engaged in daily monitoring of the movement of tankers with Russian crude oil and petroleum products.
Based on this experience, we argue that fighting the “Russian shadow fleet” is futile. Because it is impossible to fight something that does not exist in nature. There is a fleet of tankers transporting Russian crude oil and petroleum products around the world. Discussions around the size of the “price ceiling” are equally unpromising. Because it also never existed and does not exist, they write in the group’s report.
Source: Racurs
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.