Carbon emissions from fossil fuels will reach record levels in 2024.
This is evidenced by the results of a new study by the Global Carbon Project team, in which scientists from more than 80 universities around the world study the impact of greenhouse gases on the Earth, reports the press service of the University of Exeter (UK).
The effects of climate change are becoming more dramatic, but we still do not see any signs that the burning of fossil fuels has reached its peak, the researchers note.
It is expected that:
- fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will be 37.4 billion tons in 2024, up 0.8% from 2023;
- With projected emissions from land use change (such as deforestation) at 4.2 billion tonnes, total CO2 emissions are projected to be 41.6 billion tonnes in 2024, up from 40.6 billion tonnes previously year.
It is noted that:
- over the past 10 years, CO2 emissions from fossil sources have increased, while CO2 emissions from land-use change have declined on average, causing overall emissions to remain roughly the same over this period;
- CO2 emissions from fossil sources and land-use change will increase this year as dry conditions will increase emissions from deforestation and fires caused by forest degradation during the El Niño climate event in 2023-2024;
- Currently, the level of CO2 emissions into the atmosphere exceeds 40 billion tons annually, which leads to increasingly dangerous global warming;
- Global emissions from various types of fossil fuels are expected to increase in 2024 – coal by 0.2%, oil by 0.9%, gas by 2.4%. They account for 41, 32 and 21% of global fossil CO2 emissions respectively;
- China’s emissions (32% of global total) are projected to increase slightly by 0.2%, although the forecast range includes possible emissions reductions;
- US emissions (13% of global emissions) are projected to decrease by 0.6%;
- India’s emissions (8% of global total) are projected to increase by 4.6%;
- EU emissions (7% of global emissions) are projected to decrease by 3.8%;
- emissions in the rest of the world (38% of the global total) are projected to increase by 1.1%;
- International aviation and shipping (3% of total global emissions, net of national/regional emissions) is projected to grow by 7.8% in 2024, but is 3.5% lower than 2019, before the coronavirus pandemic . ;
- Continuous CO2 absorption due to reforestation and afforestation (new forests) offsets about half of the permanent emissions from deforestation;
- Current levels of technology-based carbon dioxide removal (excluding natural means such as reforestation) are only a millionth of the CO2 emitted from fossil fuels.
At the same time, scientists have drawn attention to the positive changes that have been observed recently.
Despite another rise in global emissions this year, the latest evidence points to widespread climate action, with growing penetration of renewable energy and electric vehicles displacing fossil fuels, and the first confirmed decline in emissions from deforestation in decades, the researchers note.
There are many signs of positive progress at the country level and there is a sense that a peak in global fossil CO2 emissions is imminent, but a global peak remains elusive, the scientists add.
CO2 affects temperature more than previously thought.
Source: Racurs
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.