Loss of territories. War scenarios from the West

The NYT says that in October 2024, Russia made its biggest territorial gains in Ukraine since the summer of 2022.

The Western press wrote that October 2024 became the most difficult month for Ukraine of a full-scale Russian invasion. Authoritative publications such as New York Times, Die Welt, Bloomberg wrote that in October 2024, Russian troops captured more than 400 square kilometers in Donbass. The NYT says that in October 2024, Russia made its biggest territorial gains in Ukraine since the summer of 2022, when the Russians captured Severodonetsk and Lisichansk.

Everything is lost

Russia’s current relatively rapid advance is a “remarkable change” from last year, when the front line remained largely static and each side’s ambitious offensives “largely failed,” the NYT wrote.

Vincent Tourre, an analyst at the French Foundation for Strategic Studies, points to factors that have helped Russia advance, such as Russia’s increasing use of powerful guided bombs (CAB), which are capable of destroying fortified enemy positions , and the lack of Ukrainian fortresses. Armed Forces in areas where hostilities are currently taking place.

In particular, regarding the lack of Ukrainian fortifications, the NYT gives the example of the capture of Vugledar, after which the Russians entered almost open terrain with sparse Ukrainian defense lines and several built-up area only where the Ukrainian forces can have a handle build new defense lines. The Russians now leave behind the old front line and the large mines that stopped the previous attacks on Ugledar in 2023.

Ukrainian troops also suffer from severe manpower shortages, which is why the occupiers vastly outnumber the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the battlefield, the NYT recalls. The publication believes that Ukraine has weakened its position in Donbass because it “transferred experienced units from there to Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukrainian troops launched a surprise offensive this summer.”

Pentagon officials said Kyiv sent the newly created brigades to the Kursk region, although it initially planned to use them for defense in the east and south or as a reserve for a counteroffensive in 2025.

It all depends on the election

The outcome of the US election, Bloomberg writes, could lead Kyiv to be forced to accept peace on unfavorable terms or face the prospect of continuing the war with Russia alone, according to two people close to the Office of President of Ukraine. The publication’s unnamed interlocutor said that among officials there is a deepening sense of hopelessness regarding the course of events. At the same time, NATO allies see no signs that the Russian Federation is interested in negotiations to end the war.