They decided not to change the discount rate in Ukraine – the National Bank named the reasons

The Board of the National Bank decided to leave the discount rate at 13%.

The NBU press service reported this today, October 31.

This decision, combined with maintaining the stability of the foreign exchange market, will make it possible to maintain control over inflation expectations, slow down inflation next year and return it to the target of 5%, the National Bank notes.

It is noted that the updated NBU forecast provides for a longer retention of the discount rate at 13% – at least until the summer of 2025.

In the event of a further increase in price pressure above the forecast and the threat of unbalancing inflation expectations, the NBU will be ready to strengthen interest rate policy and apply additional monetary measures, the department said.

At the same time, the NBU reports that in recent months, inflation has been growing as expected, but somewhat faster than predicted:

• in September, inflation accelerated to 8.6% year on year and, according to NBU estimates, further grew in October;
• increased price pressure in the second half of 2024 was expected and was assumed by preliminary forecasts of the NBU. However, the growth in both consumer and core inflation (7.3% y/y in September) turned out to be higher than predicted.

It is noted that the contribution to the acceleration of inflation was made by:

• rising prices for food products due to worse-than-expected harvests of various agricultural crops and the associated increase in the cost of raw materials for the food industry;
• further increases in production costs, including electricity and labor costs;
• exchange rate effects resulting from the weakening of the hryvnia in previous periods.

Despite the rise in inflation in recent months, the inflation expectations of economic agents remained quite stable and controlled, although they worsened marginally, the NBU noted.

Price pressure will continue in the coming months, however, in the spring of 2025, inflation will begin to slow down, the department predicts.

Source: Racurs

David

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