IPSO or plan? Russian attack on Kharkov

Another Russian drone attack on Kharkov has intensified talk of possible Russian preparations to take over the city.

The Russians continue to capture Kharkov and spread information about a possible all-out attack on the city. Ukrainian intelligence calls such statements a psychological information operation. Why is Russia not prepared for a ground attack on Kharkov?

A lot of troops

For an offensive operation in Kharkov, the Russian command needed additional large forces. Estimates of the size of the group hypothetically capable of taking Kharkov vary; military experts often talk about 300 thousand people.

The group of Russian troops in the West, operating in the direction of Kupyansky and Limansky east of Kharkov, has 80-90 thousand military personnel. For more than a year, it waged protracted and generally fruitless battles on a front line approximately 110 km wide. About another 35,000 are deployed in border groups in Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions – they are mainly engaged in repelling attacks from volunteer formations fighting under the auspices of the Ukrainian Armed Forces .

Attacking a city like Kharkov is pointless (they already tried it in 2022); deep coverage is also needed from the sides. It is necessary to deploy connections over a large distance – from the west of the Belgorod region to the Oskol River, and this is at least 260 km. Therefore the numbers of 300,000 – taking into account the provision of numerical superiority during an offensive operation.

It is not clear where the Russian army will find such resources. Now the urgent task of the Russian General Staff is to organize the rotation and restoration of units depleted by battles in other directions.

Unprecedented scale

To advance on Kharkov, numerical superiority alone was not enough. It is necessary not only to gather hundreds of thousands of recruits, but to train them, coordinate them, carry weapons in compliance with standard standards, provide logistics, and finally, covertly place them in the battle position If the Russian army really wants to carry out the Kharkov operation this year, then its time for this is very limited.

If a major military operation begins in the direction of Kharkov, battles on an unprecedented scale will open. The front is a large territory both in width and depth, filled with military installations.

A significant part of them is located in the Russian regions of Belgorod and, perhaps, in the regions of Kursk and Bryansk, and will be a legitimate target for Ukrainian artillery. Then the current shelling of Belgorod will be like flowers.

Just talk

As the representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate Andrey Yusov said, currently the Armed Forces of Ukraine have not recorded the formation of enemy strike groups to attack the city. Military intelligence said that by spreading information about the “attack on Kharkov,” the Russian invaders were trying to sow panic in Ukrainian society.

“Regarding the threat ‘here and now, tomorrow they will attack’ and ‘we must flee immediately and sow panic’, of course, this is the Russian IPSO,” stressed Andrei Yusov.