The Russian Federation is not preparing an operation to encircle Kharkov – ISW

Western analysts explain why information from some Russian publications about the alleged “siege of the city” is questionable.

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A likely offensive operation by Russian forces to capture Kharkov would have serious problems both for the Russian forces responsible for carrying it out and for the overall Russian campaign in Ukraine. However, at present there are no signs of the preparation of such an operation by Russian troops. This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Some Russian officials expressed hope that the increased number of troops would allow Russian forces to carry out the upcoming offensive to encircle Kharkov. Specifically, sources for the Russian publication Verstka reported that recruits and “incompetent” reservists mobilized during the spring conscription cycle will allegedly be sent to Russia’s southern border to carry out auxiliary function or as border troops as part of an effort to free up more experienced troops. for the offensive. to Kharkov.”

A source in the Russian Presidential Administration told the publication that the Russian military needs 300 thousand additional troops to begin the operation to encircle Kharkov. The source also added that the Russian military hopes to capture the city without turning it into a “second Mariupol.”

ISW analysts note that a Russian offensive to encircle Kharkov would be an extremely ambitious project. In particular, the Russians needed a long period of movement in open terrain, which they had not been able to do since the beginning of the full invasion.

Currently, Russian troops are conducting an offensive operation on the Kupyansk-Svatovo-Kremennaya line, the goal of which is access to the Oskol River in the Kharkov region. However, even if these efforts achieve their intended goal, the prospects for Russian troops advancing in the Kharkov region from the east bank of the Oskol River are as poor as the prospects for moving along the international border with the Belgorod region, if not more difficult. . Russian forces committed relatively few forces to defend Russia’s international borders, and these forces would not be sufficient for an operation to encircle Kharkov.

ISW has yet to see any signs that Russian troops are preparing for an offensive operation to encircle Kharkov.

It was previously reported, cited in the media, that the leadership of the aggressor country, Russia, was allegedly “planning massive army recruitment and preparing for covert mobilization,” presumably to cordon off the city of Kharkov.

Let’s add that by the end of 2024 in Russia it is planned to form two armies and 30 formations, of which 14 divisions and 16 brigades.

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