Support for Ukraine among Europeans remains broad, but nearly two years after the full-scale invasion, only 10% believe it can defeat Russia.
On the second anniversary of Russia’s EU invasion of Ukraine, Datapraxis and YouGov conducted a poll on support for Ukraine and the prospects for war. It turns out that only 10% of Europeans believe in the success of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the battlefield.
Effect on mood
The survey involved just over 17 thousand people in 12 EU member states, including France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden.
The survey was conducted in January 2024 against the backdrop of an ongoing debate in the US Congress about additional funding for Ukraine and before the European Union’s decision to provide financial aid to Kyiv worth 50 billion euros. The authors of the report note that the results of the survey may also be influenced by the unsuccessful counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the prospect of Donald Trump’s return to the presidency of the United States, after which he may The United States stopped supporting Ukraine.
They believe in compromise
The poll found that only one in 10 Europeans in the 12 countries surveyed believed Ukraine would win on the battlefield, while twice as many (20%) predicted a Russian victory. Even in the most optimistic EU member states – Poland, Sweden and Portugal – less than one in five (17%) believe in the success of Kyiv.
Across all countries, the survey found, the most common view, shared by an average of 37% of respondents, is that the war will end in a compromise settlement – although some countries are more likely to accept that outcome than others.
How the mood changed
At the same time, Europeans are divided over what the European Union should do during the war. 41% of respondents who said the war would end in compromise said the EU should push Ukraine to negotiate. This position is shared by the residents of Hungary (64%), Greece (59%), Italy (52%), Romania (50%) and Austria (49%).
Another 31% of respondents who hope for a compromise agreement believe that the EU should continue to support Ukraine so that it can return its territories. This opinion is most often expressed by residents of Sweden (50%), Portugal (48%) and Poland (47%).
The authors of the report noted that public opinion in Europe is divided for the third time since the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, many Europeans advocated for a quick end to the war, including at the cost of territorial concessions. However, after the successful offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2022 and widespread support for Kyiv from the United States, most Europeans believe that the EU should support Ukraine until it frees all its territories. Today many people in Europe believe that the war should end with a compromise agreement.
The survey showed that many Europeans increasingly believe that Russia’s war against Ukraine directly affects them. 33% said it had a greater impact on their country – and Europe (29%) – than the war in the Middle East (compared to 5% who said the opposite).
Source: korrespondent
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.