Years of wars. Where will it be unstable in 2024?

Where exactly on the planet could long-standing conflicts reach a fever pitch or start new wars that would divert attention from Ukraine.

In 2024, the world must prepare for a number of military conflicts. It could also be a tactic of Russia – instigating military conflicts to divert the attention and help of Ukraine’s partners.

Two conflicts are already taking place

A full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine is approaching 700 days, the war in the Middle East is approaching 70-80 days and may be approaching 100. By the way, there has never been such a long war in region.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is interested in continuing the war as long as possible, said Ilia Kusa, an expert at the Ukrainian Institute of the Future.

“Netanyahu cannot remain in office after the end of the conflict; there are too many questions that have accumulated for him. His main message is the continuation of the war until a successful conclusion. He avoids answering the question of what it will look like of success,” explained the expert.

Against the backdrop of Israeli successes in the Gaza Strip, the possibility will increase that any provocations against the Israeli army by the pro-Iranian Hezbollah movement in Lebanon and various groups in the West Bank will receive a harsh response. Complicating matters are disputes over the future of the Gaza Strip between Israel and the United States.

Taiwan

In August 2023, following Taiwan’s Vice President William Lai’s visit to the United States, China began exercises near Taiwan.

Most observers agree that, unlike Russia, China is too integrated into the global economy to risk its already shaky domestic stability through war against Taiwan—at least in the near future.

Yuri Poyta, an expert at the Taiwan Institute for National Security and Defense Studies, agrees that an invasion should not be expected in 2024.

“According to the Pentagon, Chinese leaders have set 2027 as the deadline for such readiness, but US military analysts believe it will be several years before China is ready. Beijing still needs to prepare its economy for in a state of war, reduce dependence on the West – technological and economic, to reduce the impact of sanctions,” he explained.

Venezuela

Many experts believe that Venezuela will try to annex part of Guyana’s territory. Because of this, there will be a war in Latin America – probably with the US and Brazilian militaries.

There is already much speculation in the media that Nicolas Maduro needs a “small successful war” before the presidential elections in Venezuela in 2024, which will take place against the backdrop of the country’s deepest crisis.

Balkans

Vladimir Zelensky did not rule out a new conflict in the Balkans.

“Russia has a long plan. Middle East, the second distraction is the Balkans. If the partner countries do nothing, there will be another explosion like this,” he said in November 2023.

Today in the Balkans, the confrontation between Serbia and Kosovo is closest to the stage of a heated conflict.

In September 2023, Kosovo saw its biggest clashes in years. More than 30 armed Serb fighters clashed with the Kosovo police in the village of Banjska and barricaded the territory of the Banj monastery. Kosovo forces took control of the temple, but one policeman and three Serbs were killed.

After that, Belgrade sent additional troops and heavy equipment to Kosovo’s borders. Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti accused Belgrade of preparing to annex Serb-populated areas.

A second possible conflict in the Balkans is related to threats from the President of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodyk, about its withdrawal from the federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. This would be a violation of the Constitution of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Dayton Agreement, which ended the Bosnian war that killed 100,000 people between 1992 and 1995. A peaceful divorce would require constitutional changes and an agreement with Bosnian representatives. and Croats.