The war in Ukraine has become the longest and most destructive campaign Europe has seen since the middle of the last century.
In the West, they make forecasts about scenarios for the development of Russia’s war against Ukraine. From 2021, Russia’s defense budget will triple and will reach 30% of government spending next year. The war in Ukraine has become the longest and most destructive campaign Europe has seen since the middle of the last century.
Russia against the entire West
Michael Clarke, former director general of the Royal Defense Studies Institute (RUSI), believes that Russia’s war against Ukraine has become an industrial war and that 2024 will show who will be better prepared and able to meet the insatiable demands of this war – Russia and its suppliers in North Korea and Iran or Ukraine and its Western partners.
It is wrong to say that the situation on the front in Ukraine has reached a dead end, but both sides, trying to seize the strategic initiative, will be able to contain the enemy, Clark believes.
“Russian troops may try to launch an offensive across the front line, at least to take control of the entire Donbass. Ukraine will likely try to build on the success it gained in regaining control of the western Black Sea and the important trade corridor on the Bosporus. Kyiv will probably also try to give the Russian invaders new surprises on the battlefield so that they are off balance in some areas. But essentially, 2024 looks like a year of consolidation – both for Kyiv and Moscow,” said the military expert.
Russia does not have enough weapons or trained personnel to launch a strategic offensive—even in the spring of 2025.
Meanwhile, Ukraine needs Western financial and military support to continue the war next year, but it is also building up its internal reserves to pave the way for a series of liberation offensives in the future.
The course of this war in 2024 will be determined more by Moscow, Kiev, Washington, Brussels, Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang than by Avdiivka, Tokmak, Kramatorsk or any of the devastated battlefields along the front line, Clark believes.
Pressure on Crimea
Ben Hodges, former commander of US Army Europe, believes that Russia does not have the decisive, extraordinary ability to take over Ukraine and will do everything it can to hold on to what it can, using the time to strengthen defenses. this. At the same time, he hopes that the West will lose its desire to continue supporting Ukraine.
“In early summer, Ukraine may operate US-made F-16 fighter jets for the first time, which it hopes will improve its ability to counter Russian aircraft and strengthen its own air defense. The most strategic important part of Ukraine occupied by Russia, what we call decisive territory, is Crimea. “Ukraine will do everything it can to continue to put pressure on the Russians to make it unacceptable for them to have Russian navy in Sevastopol, as well as Russian forces in Crimean air bases and their logistics base in Dzhankoy,” Hodges said.
According to him, the Ukrainians have already proven the effectiveness of this strategy: with three Storm Shadow cruise missiles provided by the UK, they forced the commander of the Black Sea Fleet to withdraw a third of his fleet from Sevastopol.
Negotiation – sooner or later
Barbara Zanchetta, an expert at King’s College London, believes that the main question for 2024 is whether the West has enough strength and endurance to continue to fight Putin.
“Despite the temptation to predict an apocalyptic scenario for Kyiv if Donald Trump, whose ratings in the polls are increasing, comes to power, it is worth recalling that, despite all his statements in the theater, Trump did not withdraw from NATO in 2016. And he cannot single-handedly destroy America’s 75-year transatlantic partnership. But this does not mean that the recent cracks in the Western camp are not important. For democratic countries, long-term consensus in support of war is always more difficult than autocrats who have no responsibility to their people, “Zanchetta believes.
In his opinion, the war will likely continue throughout 2024, but it cannot last indefinitely.
“Since Western skepticism is encouraging Russia, which should not rely on a coup d’etat or Putin’s health problems leading to his death, the only foreseeable solution seems to be a negotiated settlement of the conflict. Negotiations that both sides continue to reject, “said the expert.
Source: korrespondent
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.