Breakthrough before the end of the year? Counteroffensive prediction

The probability of a breakthrough of the Ukrainian Armed Forces of the Russian defense is 40-50%, said Trent Maul, director of analysis at the US Defense Intelligence Agency.

The successes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Zaporozhye region forced the West to change its forecasts about the Ukrainian counter-offensive to a more optimistic one. In an interview with The Economist, Trent Maul, director of analysis at the US Defense Intelligence Agency, said that the advance in the Rabotino area gives the Ukrainian Armed Forces a real opportunity to break through all of Russia’s defense lines. at the end of the year.

Positive for the Ukrainian Armed Forces

Maul warns that limited ammunition and deteriorating weather will make it “very difficult.” According to him, although the Ukrainian Armed Forces failed to achieve a breakthrough this year, but managed to expand the position area around Rabotino, maintain positions and ensure the flow of ammunition, Ukraine will have every opportunity for a new victory in 2024. The American intelligence officer said that his optimism is due to the recent successes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the front.

“If we were talking about this two weeks ago, I would have been more pessimistic,” Maul said.

He emphasized that the Russian General Sergei Surovikin, who created the defense lines, as well as the head of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose militants have achieved the most tangible results in the past year , was outside the battlefield – the first was shot down, and the second died in a plane crash.

Not everything is so positive

The publication writes that at the same time, according to one of the representatives of the administration of US President Joe Biden, Ukraine has six to seven weeks of fighting left before the end of the offensive.

However, there is disagreement about how much progress can be made in the interim. Some believe that the Ukrainian army, which abandoned most of its reserves before breaking through the second line and suffered heavy losses trying to break through, was unlikely to advance very far.

“If you look at the battlefield in five years, it might look the same,” said a senior US intelligence official.

Situation ahead

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that the defense forces were having partial success south of Bakhmut, dislodging the invaders from their positions and consolidating their position on the achieved lines. In addition, Ukrainian units continue to conduct an offensive operation in the direction of Melitopol, destroy the enemy and step by step liberate the occupied territories.

In the areas south of Rabotino and west of Verbovoy in the direction of Melitopol, they were combined with the achieved lines.

Ukrainian troops managed to break through Russian defenses and make progress on the counteroffensive, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in a speech to European parliamentarians. He noted that when Russia began its invasion, its army was considered the second strongest in the world. “Today the Russian army is the second strongest in Ukraine,” added the secretary general.

“The Ukrainians are gradually gaining strength, and this proves the importance of our support, as well as our ability and willingness to continue this support,” explained Stoltenberg.