In the West, they believe that Vladimir Putin is set for a protracted war with Ukraine, and hope for his victory here.
On the 100th day of the war against Ukraine, Russia did not achieve any of its goals, but it still would not prevent the invasion. The Washington Post believes that under the pressure of economic problems, the West’s determination to support Ukraine could weaken.
Ukrainian victory
“Ukraine will definitely win this war,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Dutch television this week.
Russia’s war machine is already under attack from Western sanctions. Ukraine received remote artillery and multiple rocket launch systems. The scenario of an effective Ukrainian attack is quite possible for politicians to imagine the possible consequences today. After all, if Putin is threatened with defeat, does he want to exacerbate the conflict by using chemical or even nuclear weapons?
“I don’t think Putin is likely to admit defeat in a conventional war when he has nuclear weapons,” historian Niall Ferguson said recently at a seminar at King’s College London.
Dead end
Russia and Ukraine may come to the conclusion that they can no longer achieve anything militarily. Russia’s military and economic losses are irreplaceable. Ukrainian citizens are also tired of the war, people no longer want to risk their lives for the sake of an illusion of victory. What if the leadership in Kyiv, which does not believe that the West will continue to support Ukraine, decided that it was time to sit at the negotiating table?
US President Joe Biden has explicitly stated that the goal of the Americans is to ensure that Ukraine has the strongest possible position at the negotiating table. Many say that the West’s desire to beat Russia is not the same as its desire to win Ukraine.
However, a stalemate on the battlefield can be expected for many months, and it will be extremely difficult to achieve a political solution to the conflict. And at least because Kyiv does not trust Moscow: they believe that any agreement with Putin he will use as a break to gather strength and prepare for a new attack. So the peace treaty may not last, and the fighting will continue with renewed vigor.
War of attrition
The war could last months, or even years, as Ukrainian and Russian troops systematically grind into each other.
The Russian president believes he will succeed by showing strategic resilience and betting that the West will get tired of helping Ukraine and focus on its own economy and the threat of China.
The West, however, has so far shown determination and continues to provide arms to Ukraine. On the battlefield, the front lines are almost shaped, the war is gradually evolving into a position of “endless war”.
Putin “believes the West will be exhausted,” a well-connected Russian billionaire, who spoke to the publication on condition of anonymity, told WP. According to him, in the beginning Putin did not really expect a strong and united reaction from the West, “but now he is trying to change the situation and believes that in the long run he will win,” said the billionaire. Western leaders are vulnerable at crucial stages of electoral cycles, and Putin is “convinced that public opinion can change overnight,” the source told the dictator’s train of thought.
“The mood in the Kremlin is such that, they say, we can’t lose – and no matter what the price will be,” the source said.
This stance suggests that the Kremlin relies on its ability to outrun the West in an attempt to circumvent the onslaught of economic sanctions. Putin has no choice but to continue the war in the hope that Ukraine’s grain blockade will “lead to instability in the Middle East and spur a new flow of refugees,” said Sergei Guriev, a former chief economist at European Bank for Reconstruction. and Development.
pause
Putin can claim that his “special military operation” has achieved its objectives: Kremlin-backed separatists in Donbass are safely protected, and a land corridor has been laid in the Crimea. After that, he could try, from a position of moral superiority, to force Ukraine to stop fighting.
“Russia can use this method at any time if it wants to play on Europe’s desire to convince Ukraine to abandon its weapons and surrender part of its territories in exchange for conditional peace,” said a Russian expert from at the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House) Keir Giles.
This view has already been expressed in Paris, Berlin and Rome: why continue the war, it’s time to end global economic problems, let’s ask for a ceasefire.
However, this is opposed by the United States, Great Britain and most Eastern European countries, whose politicians are sure that Russia’s aggression should fail in the interests of both Ukraine itself and the rest of Europe, as as well as international arrangements. .
victory of Russia
The West emphasizes that Russia, despite previous failures, is still not giving up on plans to seize Kyiv and occupy most of Ukraine. According to one of the government officials, no one has canceled this maximum program.
Russia could use its victory in Donbass to free troops for action in another direction, for example, to move back to Kyiv.
As President Zelensky himself admitted, up to a hundred Ukrainian fighters die every day in the war, and about 500 more are wounded.
Opinions in society may be divided: some Ukrainians want to continue the war, while others will demand an end to peace and a return to normal life. And some Western countries may get tired of helping Ukraine. But on the other hand, if they see Russia leading, some of Ukraine’s allies may wish to take the fighting to the next level.
Source: korrespondent
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.