Ukraine plunges Russia into the fog of war

Fog is a structural condition of war. We create it to ensure the security of the operation. And the Ukrainians are very capable in this game, – French journalist Joseph Anrotin quotes a researcher at the Center for Analysis and Forecasting International Risks, editor-in-chief of the Defense & sécurité internationale (Defense and International Security) magazine.

The article says that the Ukrainian army is stepping up efforts to dispel this fog. As an example, in recent days, the number of drone attacks on Russian positions has increased not only in the occupied territories, but also in Russia. Among them are attacks on a fuel depot in the port of Sevastopol (April 27), a terminal on Taman and an Ili oil refinery in the Krasnodar Territory (May 4).

The number of sabotage is on the rise. So, on May 1 and 2 in the Bryansk region, as a result of an explosion on the railway, two trains derailed. On May 1, a power line was damaged near a settlement south of St. Petersburg. On May 3, the Russian FSB announced the liquidation of a network of Ukrainian partisans in Crimea.

In addition, the article notes, since mid-April, Ukrainian forces have been carrying out minor military operations along the entire length of the 1.8 thousand km front.

Ukrainians are beating both in the north and in the south and east. This poses a dilemma for the Russian General Staff: does it decide to protect everything, risking being weak everywhere, or concentrates its forces in certain places, which makes others vulnerable?

Such a choice, as the expert notes, is exacerbated by the lack of funds to find out where the Ukrainians are concentrating their forces. The Russians have only two military optical surveillance satellites. They are in low orbit and cannot go higher. The Ukrainians know the time of their passage through their territory and then they simply hide.

The Russian fleet of Orlan reconnaissance drones has suffered significant losses, and Il-20 and An-30 reconnaissance aircraft rarely approach the Ukrainian border, because they are afraid of Ukrainian air defense systems.

The article notes that the blindness of the Russian side contrasts with the array of data that Ukraine has.

Since the summer of 2022, Kyiv has been renting a radar surveillance satellite from the Finnish company Iceye. It allows you to observe the Earth both at night and under heavy clouds. Also, an agreement was signed with the company on access to high-quality images from twenty other satellites.

This allows you to control objects with high frequency. Western allies have also given the Ukrainians access to their own satellite resources.

The correspondent draws attention to the fact that in recent days the United States and a number of European countries have increased radio intelligence flights on the borders of Ukraine. This makes it possible to determine the location of enemy radar systems.

In addition, Ukrainian and Western officials are circulating statements designed to confuse the Russians. So, on April 27, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that the allies sent 98% of the promised equipment, and this week the Ukrainian army announced the introduction of a 58-hour curfew in Kherson from the evening of May 5.

According to the author of the article, the statements of Yevgeny Prigozhin in recent days indicate how much such statements cause excitement on the Russian side.

According to the French journalist, another evidence of unrest is Russia’s statement about the partial evacuation of eighteen settlements in the occupied Zaporozhye region. For experts, the author of the article notes, this is a sign that the Russian General Staff assumes that a Ukrainian counteroffensive will begin there and wants to prepare for it.

What is Moscow’s right choice or Kyiv’s successful manipulation? The result of the battle, which will soon take place, partly depends on the answer to this question, the author of the article sums up.