Flash droughts are becoming more frequent and are expected to accelerate, study says

Flash droughts, which intensify over weeks, have become more frequent since the late 1950s in 74% of the world’s 33 regions and are predicted to become more frequent in increasingly warmer conditions, warns a study published this Thursday. The science.

Those droughtsDue to anthropogenic climate change, they are becoming more frequent, especially in North and East Asia, the Sahara and Europe, and this trend is expected to accelerate in a warmer future.

This phenomenon is caused by low rainfall and high evapotranspiration, which quickly depletes soil water. They can become severe within weeks and last for months, damaging vegetation and ecosystems and causing heatwaves and wildfires.

“The New Normal”

According to one of the participants in the study, the University of Southampton (UK), as they become more frequent, they are difficult to anticipate and be able to prepare for attempts to cope with their impact.

“As we head towards a warmer future, droughts become the new norm.” droughtssaid Justin Sheffield of the University of Southampton and one of the signatories.

Models show that higher emission scenarios will lead to higher risk droughts sudden onset, “which is a major challenge for climate adaptation,” the researcher added.

The study shows that while it varies by region, over the past 64 years there has been a global shift towards droughts more frequent sudden

Transition to droughts Flash surges are most noticeable in eastern and northern Asia, Europe, the Sahara, and the west coast of South America. In some areas, such as eastern North America, Southeast Asia, and northern Australia, there are fewer droughts sudden and slow, but the rate of occurrence of the phenomenon has increased.

Increased in Amazon droughts slowly, while in West Africa the frequency and its extreme nature increased as droughts quickly as well as slowly.

Irreversible impact on the ecosystem

“The transition to more droughts The sudden spikes are caused by a combination of rainfall deficits coupled with an accelerated rate of soil moisture loss,” Paley Wu of the British Meteorological Service said in a statement.

The researchers looked at how droughts in the future, for which they compared the results with scenarios of moderate and very high greenhouse gas emissions.

In both cases, future projections show an increase in the rate of development drought in most regions and an increase in the number droughts Sudden or slow formation.

The authors warn that the transition to droughts Sudden shocks can have “irreversible effects on ecosystems as they may not have enough time to adapt to sudden water shortages and extreme heat.”

Also this kind droughts This is difficult to predict because current methods use longer time scales, so new approaches are needed to give early warning. droughts shocks, as well as a better understanding of how natural ecosystems and people will be affected.

(As reported by EFE)

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