The US Department of Defense Intelligence Agency considers the scenarios for the development of the war in Ukraine in the event of the so-called “wild”, that is, unlikely, events.
The possible leak of secret US documents on military operations in Ukraine remains No. 1 topic in the world media. The NYT writes that in one of the documents leaked to the Network, the US Department of Defense Intelligence Agency defined hypothetical “unexpected” scenarios (“wild card” scenarios). It is dated February 24 and the inscription A year – this indicates that the examination was carried out a year after the start of the invasion.
It describes how each of the situations can lead to the escalation of the war, its end through negotiations, or no significant effect on the course.
4 scenarios
The publication notes that such a scenario document is a fairly typical product for intelligence services. It is designed to help military officials, politicians or legislators consider the possible consequences of major events while evaluating their options for action.
Hypothetical scenarios include the death of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, a change of leadership in the Russian Armed Forces, and a strike by Ukraine against the Kremlin.
At the same time, in the descriptions of possible events there is no assessment of what might be most likely.
Special Concerns at the White House
The NYT notes that the Biden administration is particularly concerned about a possible strike on Moscow from Ukraine, as it could trigger a sharp escalation from Russia. The risk of such a strike from Ukraine is one reason why the United States is reluctant to provide Kyiv with longer-range missiles.
“One of the four hypothetical scenarios shows what could happen if Ukraine attacked the Kremlin. A wide range of potential consequences were identified. This event could escalate when Putin, in response to public outcry, has launched a full-scale military mobilization and is considering the use of tactical nuclear weapons Or public fear may force him to negotiate war,” wrote the NYT.
American officials have not told the NYT whether the information in the document is true, but they have not denied its authenticity either.
Source: korrespondent
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