Traveling outside of Russia? Vladimir Putin’s dilemma in the face of the threat of arrest by the International Criminal Court

Russian President Vladimir Putin faces a major dilemma after an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) that theoretically prevents him from visiting more than half of the world’s countries.

“Even the post-Soviet space has ceased to be a safe place” for Vladimir Putin— commented a source in the Kremlin to the electronic newspaper Meduza.

Vladimir Putin it will have to proceed with caution from now on, as 123 countries have signed the Rome Statute, the founding treaty of the CRPD, and thirty more have signed but not ratified it.

With the beginning of the Russian military campaign in Ukraine, the Russian leader was very careful when traveling abroad. In fact, Iran is the only country he has visited outside the post-Soviet Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

To travel or not to travel

The presidential administration admitted to Meduza that the decision was an “unexpected step” for which the Kremlin was not prepared. That’s why the reaction was so furious.

Vladimir Putin He has already cut his travels to a bare minimum due to the coronavirus, and since then his only visit to the West has been a meeting in Geneva with US President Joe Biden in June 2021.

Now, with the order issued by The Hague on March 17, the West is completely ruled out, as is Eastern Europe, although Hungary is out of line and says it will not arrest its ally.

Although the United States never signed the treaty, the White House not only accused the head of the Kremlin of being a “war criminal,” but also wants to Vladimir Putin be accountable.

In Africa, most countries accept the jurisdiction of the CPI; while in Asia China, Turkey and India have never signed a treaty, as in Latin America with Cuba and Nicaragua.

The main countries of Latin America have signed the Rome Statute, although some of them, such as Venezuela, do not seem to be in the mood to put it into practice.

That nervousness has spread in the Kremlin is a fact, as the now scheduled trip Vladimir Putin to South Africa for the July BRICS Forum Summit, as the host country is among the signatories of the CPI.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zayarova expressed confidence that “friendly” South Africa guarantees the work of “all partners”, although she replied that she was “aware” of her legal obligation to arrest Vladimir Putin and that he will continue to be in contact “with the various participants in the summit”.

Reliable neighbors?

Of the neighbors, seven former Soviet republics have signed it, although only three – Moldova, Georgia and Tajikistan – have ratified the treaty. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Belarus have never signed it.

Foreign Secretary UkraineDmitry Kuleba has called for its ratification, arguing that Kyiv is not in danger of being charged with war crimes.

Surprising was the reaction of Armenia, a theoretical ally of the Kremlin, which, a week after the arrest warrant was issued, announced that its Constitutional Court had given the go-ahead for ratification.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Friday that Moscow will talk to its partner, who is growing frustrated with Russia’s lack of support during the conflict with Azerbaijan.

However, Armenian MP Arman Abovyan assured that “no one in their right mind” would order the arrest. Vladimir Putin.

Re-election in 2024

Before his re-election in 2024, the Kremlin planned to promote the image Vladimir Putin as a protector of developing countries from Western exploitation.

But to convince the Russians that Vladimir Putin “He has more friends than ill-wishers” trips abroad are needed when the Kremlin now admits that it does not know how to guarantee the safety of the head of state.

In fact, although they highly doubt that any post-Soviet country would dare to arrest the head of the Kremlin, he would not risk one iota, as any wrong step could cost very much.

According to Alexander Baunov, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment, an arrest warrant is an invitation to Wednesday Vladimir Putin to betray him at the slightest opportunity.

Remember that, unlike the sanctions, the CPI started “from above” and that Serb Slobodan Milosevic was extradited to The Hague by his former comrades (2001).

Declaration of war

Russia’s resentment grew. After meeting the previous day with Vladimir Putin Chairman of the Duma or Chamber of Deputies Vyacheslav Volodin asked on Saturday to ban the activities of the KPI in Russia, a country that signed the treaty but never ratified it.

Former President Dmitry Medvedev warned that a possible arrest Vladimir Putin would be tantamount to a “declaration of war” and even threatened to fire a rocket at The Hague.

Meanwhile, the Investigative Committee of Russia opened a criminal case against the prosecutor and judges of the court, to which the latter responded with the consent of Kyiv to open a representative office on the territory of Ukraine. (As reported by EFE)

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