The Russians gasped. Where will the Armed Forces of Ukraine compete?

The Russian offensive in the direction of Donetsk appears, the Ukrainian military says, the occupying troops of the Russian Federation have suffered serious losses and are facing a shortage of ammunition.

Ukraine and the whole world are waiting for a major counter-offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Concern is growing in the Russian information space about Ukraine’s potential conflict. Although not everyone is sure that Ukraine has the strength for a counter-offensive. What to look forward to in the coming months?

Did the Russians choke?

The Russian offensive in the direction of Donetsk has been extinguished. The occupying troops of the Russian Federation suffered serious losses and faced a shortage of ammunition, said Alexei Dmitrashkovsky, a representative of the Defense Forces of the Tavria direction, on the air of a telethon.

“In fact, the enemy is tired. Compared to last week… the enemy has significantly reduced the number of attacks, the number of shootings,” he said.

Dmitrashkovsky noted that if earlier they recorded about a hundred attacks and about 600 shellings per day, now the attackers carry out up to 30 attack actions per day. Repair of shelling 200-250. He added that in order to continue the offensive of the occupying forces of the Russian Federation, time is needed to recover.

Dmitrashkovsky said that the invaders were given a limit on the use of shells, which they should not exceed.

“If they go too far, the next day they are left without ammunition. And this is not just a problem for Prigozhin, who says he is not given ammunition. This is a common problem in the Russian army. The enemy, in my opinion, is quite exhausted and no longer has the strength it had before,” he said.

Waiting for an offensive from the south

Experts from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that the Russians consider the offensive in the south as a priority for Ukrainian forces, especially in the direction of Berdyansk-Melitopol in the Zaporozhye region or Mariupol-Volnovakha in Donetsk region. However, some representatives of the Russian pro-military community argue that the Ukrainian forces have enough fighting strength to conduct a second counter-offensive: either in another area of ​​southern Ukraine, or on the Kupyansk line -Svatovo in the northeast of the Kharkiv region.

One of the Russian “military correspondents” associated with the Wagner PMC actually agreed with ISW’s assessment of the Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut, arguing that the Ukrainian Armed Forces grind out the best infantry of the Russian troops in the city area to reduce the ability of Russian troops to stop any Ukrainian advance. He also believes that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to move south and meet minimal Russian resistance there, unlike other sectors of the front. The Deputy of the State Duma of Russia, Dmitry Kuznetsov, suggested that the Crimean Bridge and the strategy of blocking it for several months will be the goal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – similar to the example of the Antonovsky Bridge in the Kherson region. Therefore, Kuznetsov urged Russian troops to quickly deploy drone defenses of critical lines of communication connecting Crimea to mainland Russia.

Different opinions in the West

At the same time, according to The Washington Post, the Ukrainian leadership and the military have doubts that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to successfully carry out a major offensive, which is expected from Ukraine within a few months.

“It can be a massacre and corpses, or it will be a professional counteroffensive. There are two options. In any case, there will be an offensive,” said the battalion commander of the 46th Airborne Assault Brigade with the call sign Kupol to journalists.

Some Ukrainian officials interviewed by journalists also expressed doubts about the prospects for a major UAF offensive. One of them called the number of tanks that the Western countries promised to give to Ukraine symbolic. Others doubt that the weapon will reach the battlefield in time.

But among officials and experts there is another opinion. One of the American sources told The Washington Post that the situation on the battlefield today does not fully reflect the state of the Ukrainian armed forces, because the troops were trained separately for the offensive – they were not sent to battle in purpose, including not being used to defend Bakhmut. One of the Ukrainian officials told reporters that the purpose of the battles for Bakhmut is to exhaust the Russian army, and that the Ukrainian military defending the city will not participate in the upcoming offensive.

“Some are defending themselves, others are preparing,” concluded Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky, Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces. According to him, holding the line of defense would buy the time needed to prepare the reserves.