Yes, You Should Take the Possibility of a National Abortion Prohibition Seriously –

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Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) Makes a beautiful rhetorical dance about abortion.

Last week, following a leak from the Supreme Court’s draft conclusion that would repeal Roe v. Wading, McConnell said it was “possible” Republicans will try to enact a national ban on abortion.

This is not surprising, since the ban on abortion has been a top GOP priority for decades and many prominent Republicans have said they think the ban should be in the arena.

But on Tuesday McConnell “Explained“His comments. He told reporters that he was just talking about what was technically possible and, consequently, not what Republicans were trying to do if they controlled Congress and the presidency.

This is also not surprising. There will be a ban on abortion Extremely unpopular – Poll It continues to show that most Americans think it should be legal, at least in some instances – and a national ban will almost certainly cause backlash.

This unpopularity is one of the reasons why many experts and outside observers say the nationwide ban is unlikely: in American politics, parties rarely try to implement changes that are clearly excessive. contradicts. And when they do, they often fail and suffer the consequences.

Just ask Republicans to try Privatization of social security During the George W. Bush administration or whoever tried Cancel the law on available help Before Donald Trump was in the White House.

None of the attempts were successful. At the same time, intense public reaction to the by-election followed when Republicans themselves were beaten and lost control of Congress.

Yet much has changed since then, and it is a mistake to deny the possibility of a national abortion ban. The same goes for other extreme ideas like Prohibitions on certain types of contraception O a Restoration of same -sex marriage rightsWho Republicans across the country are openly supporting today.

I can think of several reasons to take this threat seriously. Here are three:

The main obstacle to attempts at unpopular political crusades is the fear of a political reaction. But Republicans now have more levels of protection from such backlash, more than ever in recent history.

The distribution of seats in the Senate (and, consequently, the votes in the Electoral College) provides disproportionate power that is not equal to power. The current geographic distribution of voters means the Republican side is leaning towards low -income states.

Last year, Progressive strategist David Shaw It is calculated that a Democratic presidential candidate needs to get 52% of the popular vote just to get 50-50 points in a constituency.

This inherent partisan advantage directly led to the appointment of several conservative judges in the Senate and Electoral College to provide a majority opinion to defeat Rose. (Remember, of the current Conservative judges, only Judge Clarence Thomas is younger than George W. Bush.)

The very advantage of separating Republicans from a political reaction to the enactment of a national ban may be enough to make it seem worthwhile.

This is arguably the deepest change in recent years, and it became even clearer as we learned more about the Jan. 6 uprising and the Republican response to it.

After a storm in the U.S. Capitol and a violent attempt to reverse the 2020 election results, Republican leaders have said they hold Trump accountable and are prepared to face the consequences.

Told publicly and in person. McConnell told fellow Republicans that Trump deserved impeachment, while House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) Told colleagues he could ask Trump to step down because Alexander Burns and Jonathan Martin The New York Times reported recently.

But McConnell ultimately supported Trump’s resignation and it looks like McCarthy never asked Trump to step down. Instead, they and other House leaders have spent the past year and a half from behind, finding new ways to reduce or justify Trump’s role in a deadly uprising, avoiding in confrontation with conspiratorial Trump supporters such as MP Marjorie Taylor Green. (R-Ga). .).

Abandoning Trump and his strongest supporters is not the same as allowing extremists to set a legislative agenda, of course. But there is a lot of overlap between Republican lawmakers who are determined to protect Trump and Republican lawmakers who are determined to ban abortion.

And if GOP leaders are afraid to confront these extremist members on issues related to the former president, it’s not clear why they’re more willing to confront them on issues related to their reproductive rights. .

While most Americans think that abortion should be legal in most cases, the minority who disagree are disproportionate white evangelicals-who, in turn, may be the most -influential constituents within the country. Republican Party.

Many figures tell the story.

White evangelicals make up nearly a quarter of the total voters. In 2020, about 70% or 80% of them will vote for Trump, depending on who Investigation of data you believe. They tend to vote a lot, even in non -annual elections, and have additional influence in states like Iowa and South Carolina, which play an early and important role in the election of presidential candidates for the GOP.

As for their views on abortion itself, three-quarters of white evangelicals say it must be large or always illegal, according to a recent poll. Banco. And a total of 86% say the statement “fruit is a person with rights” reflects their perspective very well, very well or quite well.

Republican leaders have been urging this constituency for decades to end abortions. If the upcoming nationwide Supreme Court decision makes this possible, it will be difficult for GOP leaders to explain why they are not taking advantage of it.