US plan in Ukraine: to give weapons to Vladimir Zelensky for negotiations with Vladimir Putin

A year after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, USA sticks to the strategy: to give millions of dollars of military aid to the Ukrainian president, Vladimir Zelenskyto make progress on the battlefield and to force possible negotiations with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.

government plans for Joe Bidenhowever, imbued with new urgency as the Republican opposition controls low camera after his victory in the November elections, and some of his more conservative members want to reduce attendance Ukraine.

The United States is the country that delivered the most military aid Ukraine since the beginning of the war. So far, he has approved $30 billion, equivalent to the gross domestic product of El Salvador or Iceland.

There are also some fears that European unity will crumble as the fight drags on, though for now the Western coalition “remains strong,” a senior US official told a small group of journalists, including EFE.

With this in mind USA He hopes that this spring Ukraine will be able to make significant gains on the battlefield and be in a better position to start some kind of negotiations with Russia, although that step is still a long way off.

FORCE PUTIN TO NEGOTIATE

Idea Washingtonaccording to the above-mentioned official, is to continue to give weapons Zelensky and imposing sanctions to eventually bring Putin to the negotiating table.

However, many analysts believe that Ukraine no one Russia They are ready to speak and warn that the war could drag on for months and even years.

On the one hand, according to NATO, Russia A major offensive has already begun in Ukraine, with the mobilization of thousands of soldiers and the goal of conquering the entire Donbass, in the east, and recapturing Baimut from the Ukrainians, one of the cities in that region, which is in ruins due to constant bombing.

Except, Russia she increased her presence in the Black Sea, which may indicate a new offensive in the south; already Ukraine He is concerned that thousands of Russian soldiers could cross into his territory through the territory of Belarus in order to capture Kyiv, as they unsuccessfully managed to do a year ago.

On the other hand, Ukrainian forces are preparing to repel Russian attacks and NATO It is doing its best to ensure that the promised tanks arrive in Ukraine and the air defense systems are reinforced with systems such as the Patriot, although the dispatch of combat aircraft has not yet been agreed.

As for the world Zelensky presented a ten-point decalogue at the G20 last year that Moscow dismissed as absurd and insisted it would not stop until it regained 100% of Ukrainian territory, including the peninsula Crimeawhich Russia annexed in 2014.

The Biden Administration Avoids Making an Explicit Commitment to Protect Crimeaalthough he continues to condemn its annexation by Moscow and has repeatedly said that it is the Ukrainians who must decide the face of the world.

POSSIBILITY OF A FROZEN CONFLICT

Washington it is preparing for the possibility of a stalemate in the conflict, in which both sides keep losing and gaining territory until they reach a stalemate, after which some kind of truce may occur.

This scenario would be similar to the current situation between North Korea and South Korea, with coexistence based on a truce but without a peace treaty, former US Ambassador to EFE William Taylor told EFE. Ukraine and Program Vice President Russia And Europe at the Institute for Peace USA.

According to the former ambassador, in this way Ukraine can control 80% of its territory, while Russia occupies the remaining 20%.

Another possible scenario, although less likely, is a “short war” with Ukrainian troops, once again exceeding all expectations and recapturing the occupied territories, while Russian army crumbling, Taylor explained.

However, if the tide were to change and Russian forces defeated Ukrainian ones, it is possible that a guerrilla unit with former Ukrainian soldiers would emerge to fight the occupation, retired Colonel Liam Collins, the think tank’s executive director, told EFE. , Madison Policy Forum.

In the meantime, while all these scenarios are being discussed in political circles Washingtonthe Biden government focuses on sanctions against Russia and help her Ukraine.

In fact, a few days before or after the anniversary of the invasion, February 24, USA plans to announce further military assistance Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, a new blow to Kremlin which will be added to the sanctions that will also be introduced on these dates European Union.

EFE