Russian President Vladimir Putin is deliberately focusing on the northeast direction in order to pull back and disperse Ukrainian forces before a new Russian offensive. This conclusion was made by the experts of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
A Russian re-invasion from controlled Belarus is highly unlikely, but Putin is trying to pull some of the Ukrainian units to the northeastern border in order to divide the Ukrainian defense forces before the Russian army advances.
ISW analysts believe that the Kremlin may be creating conditions for further Russian cross-border raids into the northeastern regions of Ukraine in order to prolong information operations and push Ukrainian forces to the northern border regions.
The ISW noted that on February 1, the paths held a meeting to discuss the restoration of housing infrastructure in the annexed Crimea, Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions after shelling from Ukraine. The dictator considers it a priority to stop “Ukrainian shelling of the border regions.”
Putin’s emphasis on the perceived danger of Ukrainian shelling of border regions appears to serve a dual purpose. This contributes to an information operation aimed at presenting the war in Ukraine as an existential threat to Russian citizens in order to provide domestic support for a protracted war. Putin may also create the conditions for an escalation of cross-border raids to divert and disperse Ukrainian forces away from critical offensive axes, pinning them to the northeastern border areas, the institute report says.
The ISW estimates that a Russian invasion from Belarus is extremely unlikely, and that the information operation, which aims to pin Ukrainian troops to the northern border, is likely to fail.
The threat of cross-border raids from the Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions into the north and northeast of Ukraine is likely an attempt to force Ukraine to deploy limited units in these areas, thus dispersing Ukrainian troops in anticipation of a likely Russian offensive in the coming months, summed up the ISW.
Source: Racurs
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