Delays in the delivery of Western-style tanks and armored personnel carriers could cost Ukraine the opportunity for a counteroffensive in the winter of 2023.
The Defense Forces could still launch a long-planned counter-offensive this winter, softening the effects of Western red tape in providing needed assistance. However, the delay in launching this counter-offensive has thus far allowed the Russians to lay down conditions that will make it more difficult and valuable. The invaders are already preparing forces to launch their own offensive in the Lugansk region and are intensifying their operations in the Bakhmut area. This is stated in the new report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) for January 30th.
According to experts, Ukraine will have to wait many weeks before Western tanks arrive in the required numbers in order to launch a counteroffensive.
The delay in offensive operations is likely to continue due to weather conditions. Both the Russian occupiers and the Ukrainian soldiers will have to take into account the off-road spring season, which is likely to take place in March and April. This can complicate, if not entirely impossible, a rapid mechanized counteroffensive.
Experts do not exclude that the Ukrainian side will have to wait until the end of spring or the beginning of summer in order to resume large-scale efforts to liberate the strategically important territory.
The ISW also notes that current and planned Russian offensives are likely to end without achieving decisive operational success and thus may well create favorable conditions for UAF counter-offensives, especially after Ukraine receives Western tanks.
Experts believe that Ukraine will be able to liberate its occupied territories with the current and promised support from Western countries.
Recall, the American edition of The Wall Street Journal wrote that the weapons and equipment promised to Ukraine must be delivered in the near future in order to strengthen the momentum achieved in offensive successes near Kyiv, Kharkov and Kherson in 2022.
Source: Racurs
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