The concern suggests that the window of opportunity for Ukraine is not infinite and that it needs strong Western weapons in the near future.
Behind the decision to increase military aid to Ukraine is concern in some Western capitals that the weather may be on Russia’s side, reports The Wall Street Journal.
As the newspaper writes, this concern indicates that the window of opportunity for Ukraine is not endless, and it needs powerful weapons of the West in the near future to increase the momentum it achieved during the counter-offensive last year.
It was noted that last spring, when Russian troops withdrew from Kyiv, Western governments hoped that the longer the fighting, the greater the likelihood of Ukrainian victory. Western officials say that if Europe and the US remain united after a difficult winter, Russia’s economic problems and military setbacks, exacerbated by sanctions, could force Moscow to seek of peace.
As the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaches, that confidence is fading. Officials in some capitals now fear that the Kremlin, poised to continue throwing men and equipment into the war, could gain the upper hand in a protracted war of attrition.
Consequently, it would be better to provide Ukraine with more modern weapons that would help it change the dynamics of the war and weaken Russia’s fighting capabilities.
The publication notes that the Russian army has suffered heavy losses and lacks important military capabilities, especially high-precision missiles. Some of the West’s toughest sanctions – such as an oil embargo and price cuts on Russian oil exports – are just beginning to take effect. The Russian economy is expected to experience a significant recession this year and its potential is likely to remain limited in the coming years.
However, there is no indication that the sanctions will stop the Russian military or cause such economic pressure on the Kremlin that it will undermine domestic support for the war, the article said.
The change in Western thinking about the need to speed up deliveries to Ukraine has been made public in recent days with the decisions of the US, UK and Germany to send Western-designed battle tanks to Ukraine.
Together with other armored vehicles and air defense systems, these weapons should help Ukraine not only repel any Russian offensive, but also give Kyiv the means to continue deep into Russian-held territory, placing it in a better position to negotiate.
Officials also noted that public opinion in Europe and the United States now remains unwavering in support of military and financial aid to Ukraine, but Putin may have hoped that such support would not be sustainable in years of war and change of administrations in the United States. and elsewhere.
Some officials are also concerned about how realistic the main goal expressed by supporters of increased military support is – a quick end to the conflict. There is also little faith in Western capitals that Putin will consider ending the conflict without annexing Ukraine.
Recall that according to the forecasts of the Institute for the Study of War, Russia may conduct several stages of offensive operations, the culmination of which will be the complete capture of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Source: korrespondent
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