War in Ukraine. Russia is preparing to mobilize 500,000 new soldiers, according to Kiev

Russia, which suffered several tactical failures before the winter, is preparing to mobilize 500,000 new conscripts in January, said Vadim Skibitsky, the deputy head of military intelligence of Ukraine. The Guardian: . They will be used for a series of spring and summer attacks in the east and south of the country, he added. Vladimir Putin had already ordered the mobilization of 300,000 conscripts at the end of September, bringing the total number of Russian soldiers in Ukraine to about 500,000. They will mostly be used”to multiply defensive lines in illegally occupied territories (…) rather than as combatantsOn November 16, before the closed session of the National Defense Committee deputies, Director of the General Staff of the European Union Hervé Blejan explained.

In an interview with the BBC at the end of December, the head of the General Intelligence Department, Kirilo Buodanov, also announced that a new wave of mobilization is planned for January 5. “They will be forced to start a new wave of mobilization, even taking into account that the past mobilization, which was allegedly finished, did not stop. People are mobilized in full force“, he continued.

“Useless” channel

“Vladimir Putin was still qualified.”useless» a new wave of mobilized people. But Moscow Times On December 23, it was revealed that the already heavily censored media had been ordered not to talk about the new mobilization. “Before that, it was possible to write about the current mobilization, possible scenarios and forecasts. Now all predictions are stopped. Requirement: [des autorités] says that it is impossible to talk about it, even if the statement was made by a member of the Russian State Duma or a senator.– says the source Moscow Times.

If a new wave of military recruitment was established, the issue of military equipment and training of soldiers would arise. “Russia could mobilize, that’s for sure, but what troops? We already have to appropriate the 300,000 mobilized in September, then the question of a new mobilization may arise.“, with nuances Figaro, Thibaut Fouillet, Associate Researcher, Foundation for Strategic Studies. “I don’t think that mobilization changes the situation. This is not a sufficient increase in personnel to tip the balance of power. In the beginning, the Russians were four against one, today it is a little more than one against one. The quality of the Russian army has been declining for a year, unlike the Ukrainian army“For his part, the former deputy head of NATO’s SHAPE headquarters, General Michel Yakovlev, assessed.

Ukraine, in turn, wants toby March 2023 to create three new army corps for about 75,000 men” in order to “take the initiative next spring“. “This very ambitious goal corresponds practically to the size of the French army’s ground operational force– compared to Hervé Blejean. The frost, which reached several regions of Ukraine at the end of last week, may provide an opportunity to resume activities.