ISW appreciates Putin’s New Year’s speech

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s New Year’s speech shows that he is not confident in his ability to shape Russia’s information space and remains focused on justifying the war and its cost to his people. On Sunday, January 1, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported.

Analysts drew attention to the fact that the Kremlin leader said not only that Russia has historical rights to Ukraine, but also that Russia’s independence and sovereignty depend on restoring control over Ukraine.

“Thus, Putin is trying to make victory in the war necessary for the continued existence of Russia as an independent state,” the analysis said.

According to experts, these words were probably intended to partially justify the costly war and appeal to the ultra-nationalist pro-war community.

“Putin remains unwilling to consider a meaningful peaceful resolution of the war except on terms he dictates to Ukraine and the West. Putin is unlikely to accept a lesser outcome unless Ukraine, with the help of supporters of it in the West, could inflict further large-scale defeats on Russian forces and liberate much of their occupied land,” analysts said.

At the same time, Putin did not say how the Russian military would correct its failures in Ukraine and achieve its maximalist goals.

The banality of much of the speech is consistent with previous ISW assessments that Putin may have delayed his annual State of the Union address because he is unsure of his ability to shape Russia’s media space amid growing criticism of his handling of the war. .

Recall that the former head of the British government Boris Johnson expressed confidence that 2023 will bring victory to Ukraine against the enemy.

President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the Ukrainians. He summarized the results of 2022 and said that 2023 should be a year of success for the Ukrainian people.