Growth in the BA.5 version, still at 94,000 new cases per day, is receding. For the first time, France will allow Covid to circulate without trying to stop the flow through population barriers. At this stage, France seem to have rocked the boat, even if it is always difficult to draw conclusions along the way. “Now the reproduction number R (which reflects the dynamics of the epidemic, editor’s note) is well below 1 and continues to fall; this means the decline is accelerating.”, deciphers Montpellier epidemiology lecturer Mircea Sofonea. In other words, the crest of this seventh wave seems well and truly past.
What has changed? The population is now well immunized both through natural infections and vaccinations. Experts estimate that 90-95% of the population has been infected with the virus at least once. In addition, approximately 93% of eligible French people received the first doses of the vaccine, and two-thirds received at least one booster dose. The summer season, when more time is spent outdoors, was also considered a favorable factor, despite a few days of heat wave that prompted people to prefer indoor spaces.
If the dynamics are indisputable, the scale of the number of victims is probably underestimated. This is evidenced by the data collected by the Obépine wastewater monitoring network. “Concentrations in Ile-de-France have risen to levels close to what we experienced this winter with Omicron.” explains Laurent Moulin, head of the Obépine interest group. However, the peak national incidence was estimated at 3,800 cases per 100,000 population at the end of January (so up from 1,349 this time). This correlation between official data and the actual circulation of the virus is undoubtedly explained by the generalization of self-tests, the results of which are not reported to health authorities. Even the complete absence of a test in the face of a “cold” or a “crack” that disturbs only a few days.
The scientific council, which issued its final opinion on Wednesday before disbanding at the end of July, further predicts that “Hospitalizations will continue to increase and should peak in the second half of July.” “It is too early to say how large the peak in usual care and critical care hospitalizations will be, as well as the number of deaths, experts continue. It seems that we are getting close to the numbers seen on BA.2 channel in April of last year.
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“Living with a virus”.
P:r: Mark Gainier (AP-HM), head of the resuscitation department at La Timon Hospital in Marseille, notices an increase. “undeniable” hospitalizations for Covid, but thinks this wave “In the current situation, there is no burden on the state hospital. The real problem is the closed beds due to lack of staff. Patients cared for in his ward for severe Covid all have multiple co-morbidities. “We don’t have a patient without a history, as might have happened at the beginning of the epidemic.” It would not be out of the question, however, to think that this seventh wave exists “neutral”warns Mircea Sofonia. “Mortality is still rising, and at such a rate that it may double again.” the epidemiologist warns. “A lot”.
In its latest conclusion, the Scientific Council notes that the 25,000 Covid-related deaths recorded between January and the end of May did not occur. “So far, it has not caused a particularly strong reaction among the population.”. “Living with the virus” strategy is actually taking shape in the new pandemic context., experts note. a “substantial change” which should be accompanied if necessary “Measures to control the circulation of the virus, such as the obligation to wear a mask in certain places, (…) to reduce the health and economic impact and to better secure some vital places where the most vulnerable must go, such as transport.” he defends.
Source: Le Figaro
