The IMF predicts a drop in Ukraine’s GDP by 35% by the end of the year

The International Monetary Fund believes that the indicators of the Ukrainian economy will decrease by the end of 2022.

The level of the real GDP of Ukraine at the end of this year will decrease to minus 35% against the backdrop of the loss of human resources, damage to the infrastructure and the national economy as a whole in the context of the war unleashed by the Russian Federation. This is stated in the forecast of the International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook (WEO).

According to indicators for European economies, the WEO indicates that the economic growth of Ukraine will decrease from 3.4% of GDP in 2021 to minus 35% by the end of 2022.

The consumer price index in Ukraine at the end of 2022 will grow from 9.4 to 20.6, according to the IMF. The remaining forecasts for the current and subsequent years have not been published.

The IMF explained that such economic trends are common for countries that are at war – this is what happened in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon. The rate of further economic growth depends on the duration of the war, the effects of the national economy and politics during and after the conflict, and the level of international support.

Russia’s war with Ukraine continues to have a negative impact on the regional as well as the international level. The IMF also points to the global consequences of Russia’s aggression, in particular, on the global food market. World food prices remain high, but are expected to soften slightly.

Remember, the Ministry of Economy reported that according to the results of the three quarters of this year, the fall in GDP in Ukraine is estimated at 30%.

We add that the Ukrainian authorities expect that the economy will fall this year by almost 33%, and next year – an increase of more than 15%.

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