Because of the war, all projections except GDP were omitted due to an unusually high level of uncertainty.
The International Monetary Fund stops making forecasts for Ukraine, except for real GDP. This was stated in the IMF review on Tuesday, April 19.
“And even after the war soon, the loss of life, the destruction of physical capital and the flight of citizens will seriously hinder economic activity for many years to come. For Ukraine, all forecasts for 2022-2027, other than real GDP, have been removed due to an unusually high level of uncertainty. Real GDP is projected until 2022, “the document said.
According to IMF expectations, the collapse of the Ukrainian economy this year will be 35%.
The Fund states that, based on a study by Natalia Novt and Evgenia Pugacheva, the Macroeconomic Costs of the Conflict, ten years after the start of the conflict, GDP per capita still remains approximately 28% lower. , mainly due to declining personal consumption. of about 25%.
The conflict was also associated with a sharp decline in official trade, with exports estimated to drop by 58% and imports by 34% ten years after the start of the conflict.
It has been noticed that the outbreak of conflict often also causes significant influx of refugees to neighboring underdeveloped countries in the short term and relatively small but very steady influx of refugees into developed countries in the long run. weather.
It will be recalled that in the first quarter of 2022, Ukraine’s GDP dropped by 16% compared to the same period last year. Those industries where remote employment is unlikely to be the hardest hit.
The Ministry of Finance believes that as a result of the war, Ukraine’s losses could reach up to 50% of GDP.
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Source: korrespondent
