Under the completion of the active phase of the war and the unblocking of Black Sea ports, the economy will return to growth in 2023-2024, predicts the regulator.
The National Bank of Ukraine estimates the economic fall in the second quarter of this year at 40%, but overall, by the end of 2022, it expects it to fall by a third. This was reported on the regulator’s website on Thursday, July 21.
“Ukraine’s economy will shrink by a third in 2022, but with the unblocking of the Black Sea ports, it will return to growth in 2023-2024,” the message said.
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It was noted that a significant contribution to the fall in GDP will be a decrease in agricultural activity due to temporary work and land mining, loss of equipment and elevators, as well as untimely and insufficient planting of land with fertilizers and plant protection. products.
In addition, fighting in the east and south, the destruction of infrastructure in other regions, the blockage of ports and low demand in most sectors will prevent economic recovery in the coming months.
According to the forecast, at the end of the active phase of the war, a moderate increase in consumer demand, the establishment of technological and logistical processes, the revival of investment activity, including due to prospects for integration are expected of Ukraine’s Europe.
“However, due to the large loss of production and human potential, as well as high security risks, the recovery rate of Ukraine’s economy in 2023-2024 will be about 5-6% per year,” the report said. .
It is indicated that additional military and financial assistance from countries – international partners will allow maintaining the state’s defense capability and cover a significant part of the budget needs in 2022.
In 2023-2024, further active cooperation with international financial organizations is expected, including the launch of a new IMF program to maintain the balance of payments and macroeconomic stability.
The main risks for the NBU forecast are a longer period of the liberation war against the Russian invaders, an imbalance in public finances, increased emigration, fraught with reductions in the labor force, and a -recession in the global economy.
It will be remembered that in the first quarter of 2022, the GDP of Ukraine decreased by 16% compared to the same period last year. The said data is published by the Ministry of Economy.
In turn, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that by the end of 2022, Ukraine’s GDP will decrease by at least 35%.
And the World Bank believes that the Ukrainian economy will fall by 45% this year.
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Source: korrespondent
I am Dylan Hudson, a dedicated and experienced journalist in the news industry. I have been working for Buna Times, as an author since 2018. My expertise lies in covering sports sections of the website and providing readers with reliable information on current sporting events.